Ismael De La Cruz

Informe económico de Forex Time

Informe de Forex Time

Informe de Forex Time


Les expongo a continuación el informe de mercados que me ha mandado Forex Time para que lo comparta con todos ustedes, acerca de la evolución de los mercados bursátiles.

US finds itself on rocky ground while UK steadily records rapid recovery

The US seems to have lost its momentum with the arrival of autumn, as Non-Farm Payrolls for September disappointed at 148K, missing a predicted estimate of 180K substantially and acting as a stark contrast to August’s impressive figure of 193K. Adding fuel to the fire was September’s unemployment rate, which at 7.2% indicated a measly drop from the 7.3% of the previous month and in terms of year-over-year change proved to be rather insubstantial. The bad news wounded the US dollar and caused the EUR/USD to soar by 0.82% to 1.3799. The week continued to prove sour for the US, as Existing Home Sales declined for the first time since June, the increase in both prices and mortgage rates discouraging buyers and causing purchases to fall to 5.29M. On a more positive note, US Durable Goods Orders increased 3.7% in September, exceeding expectations of a 2.0% rise. The boost to this figure is said to be a result of an increase in aircraft orders according to the Commerce Department. The most important news in the pipeline for the US this week include the Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference which are taking place on Wednesday October 30th, and the Consumer Price Index (YoY) for September which is forecast at 1.2%.

Europe showed signs of optimism last week as data released on October 23rd revealed that Consumer Confidence in the eurozone climbed to -14.5% for the month of October, improving from the -14.9% recorded in September and indicating a small, albeit important lift in spirits amongst eurozone households. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone climbed to 51.3 in October according to data released on October 24th, but despite being an improvement from September’s 51.1, it disappointed expectations of a rise to 51.4. The same can be said for the Markit Services PMI for October, which at 50.9 was substantially below expectations of an increase to 52.4. At the two day EU Summit which took place on October 24th and 25th, the topics which were at the top of the agenda included migrant deaths off the Italian island Lampedusa, allegations of the US Intelligence monitoring the phone calls of EU politicians and talks of a eurozone banking union. This week in the eurozone, the most important data due is the Consumer Price Index and the Core Consumer Price Index for October, both due to be released on October 31st.

The Bank of England Meeting Minutes released on October 23rd pointed towards satisfactory economic progress in the UK, with no member rooting for more stimulus measures and new data showing that the economy is enjoying a 1% quarterly growth rate. The reasons for this rapid recovery have been the strength of the housing sector, the lower market interest rates and a strong GBP. In addition, wages appear to be on the rise slowly but gradually and employment figures have been better than what was estimated in the August Inflation Report. This week will see the release of a variety of data from the UK including the Gfk Consumer Confidence and Nationwide Housing Prices for October, due on October 31st, the Unemployment Rate for September due on the same day and the Markit Manufacturing PMI for October, due on November 1st.

Japan is steadily continuing in its mission to end the years of deflation and is making significant steps towards its goal; government data released on October 25th revealed that Japan’s Core Consumer Prices climbed 0.7% in September in comparison to September 2012, reaching almost as high an increase as August’s 0.8% which was the fastest growth recorded in 5 years. On the political front, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has replied to China’s call to power by affirming that Japan will not allow China to rock the balance of power in Asia and intends on adopting a more dynamic role in Asian politics. Such political tensions tend to scare investors into risk aversion, which in turn usually leads them to the yen which is a safe haven. The most important news expected in Japan this week is the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision which will be announced on October 31st. Other fundamental news include the release of the Annualized Housing Starts and the Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for October.

What to Watch this Week!

Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference on Wednesday October 30th: If the Fed Conference is negative the EUR/USD will overwrite the 1.3835 level, making 1.3835 a possible resistance level. If the EUR/USD breaks up, it will become a strong support level with the next resistance at 1.3900 psychological and 1.4350. The nearest support level is 1.3560; if it is broken, the next support levels are likely to be 1.3460 and 1.3160.

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4 Respuestas to “Informe económico de Forex Time”

  1. vicente caballero 30 octubre 2013 a las 11:34 at 11:34 #

    gracias ismael. hoy parece que habla el dueño del mercado y parece que todos saben que vana continuar «cuidandolo cuidadosamente» no vaya a ser que corrija un 0,5%. como tienen dinero y papel para imprimir sin limite esta claro que esto no caera. cortos no hay, pero como algun dia alguien diga que no se puede continuar haciendo lo que estan haciendo y se multipliquen los cortos puede ser divertido. aunque no creo que ocurra, no les interesa.
    un saludo

    • Ismael De La Cruz 30 octubre 2013 a las 12:04 at 12:04 #

      Hola Vicente.

      En principio no debiera de haber sorpresas en lo que comente hoy Bernanke. El interés estará sobre todo en los comentarios que realice acerca del estado de la economía del país. Este hecho será el más demandado por los mercados.


      • vicente caballero 30 octubre 2013 a las 12:19 at 12:19 #

        por lo que he podido aprender desde que leo economia y mercados la economia no tienenada que ver con el mercado, o la bolsa o el negocio del trading. los datos de la economia que hoy se comente por parte del dueño, seran los que interesen para explicar el movimiento posterior del mismo, solo hay tres posibles, alcista bajista o lateral o sea dejarlo como esta. los datos se modifican al antojo que sea necesario, los chinos mienten descaradamente, los americanos tambien, si las bolsas descuentan expectativas los americanos deberian vivir en el paraiso el año que viene. luego despues de los datos hay correcciones de los mismos, en fin, este negocio se manipula dependiendo de las conveniencias de los grandes, el trading cambio cuando los estados se metieron a traders, es otra forma de cobrar impuestos sin que sean impuestos, pueden hacer perder dinero a los pequeños y no pueden quejarse porque son errores de los pequeños a la hora de invertir, la tendencia puede cambiar en un segundo si interesa…bueno quiza en mas de un segundo, pero hemos vosto caidas muy muy importantes de grandes indices cuando ha interesado. el presidente de los estados nidos estaba avisado del crack del 29, pudo vender su cartera antes del mismo…. en fin es una opinion muy particular, no me hagais mucho caso.
        un saludo

        • Ismael De La Cruz 30 octubre 2013 a las 12:37 at 12:37 #

          En teoría los mercados son un barómetro de la economía y anticipa lo que ésta hará, pero ahora no vale esto, ya que con el chute de esteroides (QE) que la FED metió a los mercados, las subidas son artificiales, estando varios mercados en máximos históricos y eso que las economías no están aún bien.
          Por eso para operar con éxito hay que observar y saber analizar bien los gráficos, evitando el ruido del exterior.


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