Les expongo a continuación el informe de mercados que me ha mandado Forex Time para que lo comparta con todos ustedes, acerca de la evolución de los mercados bursátiles.
US Monetary Stimulus Strategy Under Pressure As Economic Recovery Continues To Be Challenged
The US economic recovery is once again the focus of the market with investors eagerly awaiting this week’s highlight event, the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee, the FOMC. Janet Yellen, current vice-chair of the Fed and chairperson-elect, last week indicated that she will continue with the current monetary stimulus strategy until she sees a robust recovery, including a lowering of the nation’s 7.3 percent unemployment rate. She said the US economy must improve before the Fed will taper quantitative easing, adding that there are dangers both to end the stimulus too early or too late. The EUR/USD reacted to this news by climbing further towards 1.3470 at the beginning of Yellen’s speech.
Yellen’s comments were further justified by mixed employment and trade data; more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, with the jobless claims for the week ending November 9 falling to 339,000 from a revised 341,000 the week before. Meanwhile the trade deficit in the US widened more than forecast in September to a four-month high, and exports declined for a third month. The gap in goods and services trade increased 8 percent to $41.8 billion from a revised $38.7 billion in August. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are expected to affect the performance of the USD, with forecasts indicating that positive economic and financial positions are likely to have a bullish impact on USD pairs; the EUR/USD will probably test new lows for the month of around 1.3295.
After the shock cut in Eurozone interest rates, the Council stressed that the move was in line with the central bank’s forward guidance on rates, introduced in July 2013, “given the latest indications of further diminishing underlying price pressures in the euro area over the media term, starting from currently low annual inflation rates of below 1%”.
The Eurozone inflation rate fell to 0.7% in October, mainly in line with expectations but the lowest rate since November 2009. German inflation was also announced to have fallen by 0.2% in October, after remaining flat the previous month. Although this data seems disappointing, it was in line with analysts’ forecasts and, on an annual basis, German CPI grew 1.2% in October, down from the 1.4% rise in September. The EUR/USD slid to a low of 1.3430 but found support at the 100-hour SMA and bounced slightly. Friday’s German GDP announcement is anticipated at 0.3% and, in the rare case that this comes out not as expected, this will have a huge impact on EUR pairs.
The first Bank of England inflation report since new Governor Mark Carney took over the position has indicated robust growth in the UK economy. This has spurred the UK’s central bank policy makers to bring forward the forecast date for unemployment to reach the target 7% level, which is when they expect an interest rate increase will become a real possibility. The authors of the inflation report also cut the near-term predication for consumer-price increases and expect them to slow to just below the target 2% by the first quarter of 2015.
UK unemployment data was positive showing a drop by 41.7K of those claiming unemployment during September, bettering the estimated drop of 35K albeit a tad higher than August’s drop of 44.7K (revised). This week investors will be closely watching for Wednesday’s minutes from the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting which will reveal how the members voted and give indications for future monetary policy in the UK.
Last week saw positive news out of Japan, with the economy posting a current account surplus of 587.3 billion yen in September. The headline figure topped expectations for a surplus of 400.8 billion yen following the 161.5 billion yen surplus in August. The surplus jumped 14.3 percent on year, also beating forecasts for a contraction of 10.4 percent following the 63.7 percent annual plummet a month earlier. Additionally, Japan’s economy is expected to have risen 0.4% on quarter, or an annualized +1.7%, posting a fourth straight quarterly growth in July-September, but its pace has decelerated from a sharp 0.9% expansion (an annualized +3.8%) in Q2 due to a slump in exports to the U.S. and China and slower consumer spending, economists forecast. Investors are now awaiting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on Thursday, with rates anticipated to remain at 0.10%.
What to Watch this Week:
USD pairs are the ones to watch on Wednesday when the FOMC minutes are released. If the minutes indicate the US economy is in a positive financial and economic condition, the USD will likely gain power against his rivals as the likelihood of tapering becomes closer. If the news about the economic recovery is negative, the USD will be pegged on lows against its major rivals of EUR, JPY, AUD, and GBP.
For more information please visit: Forex Time
Disclaimer: This material should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation or, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. This material has not been prepared in accordance to legal and regulatory requirements in relation to independent research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. Any information relating to past performance of an investment is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. The material is for general information only and does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation. ForexTime Ltd makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by an employee of ForexTime Ltd, a third party or otherwise. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Any opinions made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of ForexTime Ltd. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without prior permission.
Risk Warning: There is a high level of risk involved with trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs. You should not risk more than you can afford to lose, it is possible that you may lose more than your initial investment. You should not trade unless you fully understand the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss. When trading, you must always take into consideration your level of experience. If the risks involved seem unclear to you, please seek independent financial advice.
Dirigidos a toda persona interesada en los mercados financieros, tanto los que quieren empezar poco a poco y aprender, como los que llevan ya tiempo invirtiendo. Todo ello explicado de manera sencilla y amena, con el objetivo de que toda persona lo entienda independientemente de sus conocimientos o experiencia.